World Cup 2030 predictions for every nation

We simulated the entire road to 2030 — qualifiers, draw and finals — 20,000 times. This is how often each nation qualified, reached each round and won.

Updated 20 October 2026

20,000complete cycles simulated

46different champions

66nations that reached a final

186of 211 qualified at least once

These are not bookmakers' odds and not a forecast. They are a count: the whole road to 2030 — every qualifier, the draw, all 104 matches of a 48-team World Cup — was played 20,000 times with the simulator's match engine, and this page reports how often each thing happened. How the simulation works.

Who wins it

Spain win 28.7% of simulated tournaments, ahead of Argentina (18.2%), France (15.2%) and England (11.5%). Between them those four take 73.6% of the titles. 46 nations win it at least once.

The six nations that stage matches win 55.2% of the time between them. Much of that is simply strength — four of them are in the world's top ten — but playing at home helps: Spain, Portugal and Morocco play their whole group stage in their own country, with the home advantage that brings.

Every nation that wins at least one simulated World Cup in 200. Columns show the share of all cycles in which the nation got at least that far.
#	Nation	Conf.	Champion	Final	Semi-final	Quarter-final	Qualifies
1	Spain Host	UEFA	28.7%	40.3%	55.8%	73.1%	100%
2	Argentina Centenary host	CONMEBOL	18.2%	30.5%	45.8%	64.0%	100%
3	France	UEFA	15.2%	26.3%	41.1%	58.7%	96.2%
4	England	UEFA	11.5%	21.8%	36.3%	55.0%	95.6%
5	Portugal Host	UEFA	4.4%	11.1%	24.4%	41.4%	100%
6	Morocco Host	CAF	3.5%	8.9%	17.9%	42.2%	100%
7	Brazil	CONMEBOL	3.4%	9.2%	20.5%	39.4%	>99.9%
8	Belgium	UEFA	2.4%	6.5%	15.6%	32.0%	88.7%
9	Netherlands	UEFA	2.1%	5.9%	14.3%	30.0%	88.3%
10	Colombia	CONMEBOL	1.6%	4.8%	12.6%	28.6%	99.6%
11	Mexico	CONCACAF	1.5%	4.9%	12.8%	29.2%	98.4%
12	Switzerland	UEFA	1.2%	3.8%	10.7%	24.8%	85.8%
13	Germany	UEFA	1.0%	3.2%	9.2%	21.8%	84.2%
14	Japan	AFC	0.9%	2.9%	8.5%	21.5%	99.7%
15	USA	CONCACAF	0.8%	3.2%	9.2%	22.7%	98.5%
16	Italy	UEFA	0.7%	2.6%	7.8%	19.3%	82.4%
17	Croatia	UEFA	0.7%	2.5%	7.5%	18.3%	81.9%

By confederation

"Semi-final places" is the average share of the four semi-final slots that go to a confederation's teams.

Confederation	Nations	Titles	Semi-final places	Most likely champion
UEFA · Europe	55	68.5%	59.1%	Spain
CONMEBOL · South America	10	23.7%	22.1%	Argentina
CAF · Africa	54	4.2%	8.2%	Morocco
CONCACAF · North America	35	2.5%	6.4%	Mexico
AFC · Asia	46	1.2%	4.3%	Japan
OFC · Oceania	11	0%	<0.1%	New Zealand

All 211 nations

Ordered by FIFA ranking. The last column is the chance of qualifying if the tournament is expanded to 64 teams, counted over 10,000 simulated qualifying campaigns with the simulator's assumed allocation for that format.

FIFA	Nation	Conf.	Qualifies	Round of 32	Round of 16	Quarter-final	Semi-final	Final	Champion	Qualifies (64)
1	Spain Host	UEFA	100%	99.7%	85.8%	73.1%	55.8%	40.3%	28.7%	100%
2	Argentina Centenary host	CONMEBOL	100%	99.5%	83.7%	64.0%	45.8%	30.5%	18.2%	100%
3	France	UEFA	96.2%	95.5%	78.4%	58.7%	41.1%	26.3%	15.2%	96.7%
4	England	UEFA	95.6%	94.7%	76.3%	55.0%	36.3%	21.8%	11.5%	96.7%
5	Portugal Host	UEFA	100%	98.1%	72.0%	41.4%	24.4%	11.1%	4.4%	100%
6	Brazil	CONMEBOL	>99.9%	97.1%	67.7%	39.4%	20.5%	9.2%	3.4%	100%
7	Morocco Host	CAF	100%	98.1%	72.5%	42.2%	17.9%	8.9%	3.5%	100%
8	Belgium	UEFA	88.7%	85.5%	57.1%	32.0%	15.6%	6.5%	2.4%	93.3%
9	Netherlands	UEFA	88.3%	84.8%	54.9%	30.0%	14.3%	5.9%	2.1%	92.3%
10	Mexico	CONCACAF	98.4%	93.2%	57.5%	29.2%	12.8%	4.9%	1.5%	99.9%
11	Colombia	CONMEBOL	99.6%	94.3%	57.3%	28.6%	12.6%	4.8%	1.6%	100%
12	Switzerland	UEFA	85.8%	81.3%	49.8%	24.8%	10.7%	3.8%	1.2%	91.1%
13	Germany	UEFA	84.2%	77.8%	45.0%	21.8%	9.2%	3.2%	1.0%	90.3%
14	Croatia	UEFA	81.9%	73.8%	39.9%	18.3%	7.5%	2.5%	0.7%	88.6%
15	Italy	UEFA	82.4%	74.4%	41.3%	19.3%	7.8%	2.6%	0.7%	89.0%
16	USA	CONCACAF	98.5%	88.8%	49.2%	22.7%	9.2%	3.2%	0.8%	99.8%
17	Japan	AFC	99.7%	89.4%	47.5%	21.5%	8.5%	2.9%	0.9%	99.8%
18	Senegal	CAF	89.1%	76.8%	36.9%	15.3%	5.4%	1.6%	0.4%	92.2%
19	Norway	UEFA	75.5%	63.4%	28.8%	11.1%	3.6%	1.0%	0.2%	83.8%
20	Uruguay Centenary host	CONMEBOL	100%	84.4%	38.4%	15%	5.0%	1.3%	0.3%	100%
21	Denmark	UEFA	74.5%	62.1%	28.2%	10.4%	3.6%	1.0%	0.2%	82.6%
22	Austria	UEFA	69.1%	54.9%	22.0%	7.5%	2.1%	0.5%	<0.1%	80.2%
23	IR Iran	AFC	99.1%	79.9%	32.8%	11.4%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%	99.4%
24	Ecuador	CONMEBOL	83.0%	63.5%	24.0%	8.0%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	99.9%
25	Egypt	CAF	80.2%	61.3%	23.5%	7.6%	2.1%	0.5%	<0.1%	85.3%
26	Australia	AFC	98.3%	75.5%	28.6%	9.6%	2.7%	0.6%	0.2%	99.0%
27	Canada	CONCACAF	95.8%	72.0%	26.9%	8.8%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%	99.4%
28	Algeria	CAF	82.0%	59.3%	22.0%	7.1%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%	86.2%
29	Côte d'Ivoire	CAF	80.7%	58.0%	21.5%	6.9%	1.8%	0.4%	<0.1%	85.5%
30	Nigeria	CAF	80.4%	56.4%	20.3%	6.7%	1.7%	0.4%	<0.1%	85.6%
31	Türkiye	UEFA	61.6%	42.0%	14.5%	4.4%	1.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	74.4%
32	Korea Republic	AFC	97.5%	69.2%	25.2%	7.9%	2.1%	0.4%	<0.1%	99.1%
33	Paraguay Centenary host	CONMEBOL	100%	68.9%	23.1%	6.6%	1.7%	0.5%	<0.1%	100%
34	Sweden	UEFA	34.2%	22.4%	6.9%	1.9%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	71.8%
35	Russia	UEFA	36.9%	25.0%	8.4%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%	<0.1%	73.8%
36	Ukraine	UEFA	29.7%	18.5%	5.5%	1.5%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	69.0%
37	Poland	UEFA	28.7%	17.9%	5.3%	1.4%	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	67.3%
38	Hungary	UEFA	26.1%	15.5%	4.2%	1.0%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	37.3%
39	Wales	UEFA	24.0%	13.9%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	34.9%
40	Congo DR	CAF	69.2%	39.8%	11.2%	3.0%	0.6%	<0.1%	<0.1%	77.6%
41	Greece	UEFA	27.0%	16.4%	4.9%	1.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	37.2%
42	Cameroon	CAF	65.5%	35.5%	9.0%	2.1%	0.5%	<0.1%	0%	76.0%
43	Scotland	UEFA	22.1%	12.1%	3.0%	0.7%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	31.4%
44	Serbia	UEFA	18.7%	9.7%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	28.0%
45	Slovakia	UEFA	21.6%	12.2%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	30.8%
46	Panama	CONCACAF	77.4%	39.0%	9.7%	2.1%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	95.3%
47	Mali	CAF	64.2%	31.5%	7.9%	1.9%	0.4%	<0.1%	0%	74.4%
48	South Africa	CAF	39.0%	18.2%	4.6%	1.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	74.7%
49	Venezuela	CONMEBOL	31.4%	14.0%	3.5%	0.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	97.1%
50	Chile	CONMEBOL	28.3%	11.9%	2.7%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	96.9%
51	Czechia	UEFA	16.9%	7.0%	1.7%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	25.8%
52	Slovenia	UEFA	17.8%	7.5%	1.8%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	25.7%
53	Peru	CONMEBOL	17.6%	6.6%	1.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	94.4%
54	Costa Rica	CONCACAF	75.7%	28.0%	6.5%	1.3%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	93.9%
55	Saudi Arabia	AFC	82.8%	29.6%	6.8%	1.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	93.8%
56	Republic of Ireland	UEFA	14.7%	5.3%	1.2%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	24.2%
57	Bosnia and Herzegovina	UEFA	13.1%	4.3%	0.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	23.0%
58	Romania	UEFA	11.6%	3.7%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	20.4%
59	Uzbekistan	AFC	75.3%	22.3%	4.7%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	90.5%
60	Qatar	AFC	64.0%	17.3%	3.3%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	86.5%
61	Tunisia	CAF	26.6%	7.4%	1.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	66.1%
62	Burkina Faso	CAF	26.5%	7.6%	1.7%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	64.8%
63	Iraq	AFC	52.9%	13.2%	2.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	80.7%
64	Northern Ireland	UEFA	10.5%	2.9%	0.6%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	18.6%
65	United Arab Emirates	AFC	51.4%	12.4%	2.3%	0.4%	<0.1%	0%	0%	79.3%
66	Albania	UEFA	8.6%	2.2%	0.4%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	16.3%
67	Honduras	CONCACAF	60.3%	13.8%	2.6%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	85.4%
68	Cabo Verde	CAF	21.6%	5.3%	0.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	28.7%
69	Jamaica	CONCACAF	41.6%	9.0%	1.5%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	76.3%
70	Ghana	CAF	19.1%	4.1%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	25.1%
71	North Macedonia	UEFA	6.5%	1.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	13.2%
72	Jordan	AFC	35.4%	7.3%	1.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	65.6%
73	Iceland	UEFA	8.0%	1.7%	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	15.6%
74	Georgia	UEFA	7.4%	1.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	13.9%
75	Finland	UEFA	6.7%	1.4%	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	8.6%
76	Kosovo	UEFA	7.2%	1.6%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	9.6%
77	Israel	UEFA	5.6%	1.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	8.1%
78	Bolivia	CONMEBOL	1.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	51.9%
79	Montenegro	UEFA	5.3%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	7.1%
80	Curaçao	CONCACAF	29.8%	5.2%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	61.3%
81	Oman	AFC	17.2%	2.4%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	41.9%
82	Guinea	CAF	12.4%	1.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	17.7%
83	Angola	CAF	12.3%	1.8%	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	17.9%
84	Haiti	CONCACAF	22.4%	3.5%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	50.6%
85	Gabon	CAF	12.3%	1.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	17.2%
86	Syria	AFC	17.3%	2.7%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	40.5%
87	Uganda	CAF	9.5%	1.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	16.8%
88	New Zealand	OFC	67.6%	8.8%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	79.6%
89	Benin	CAF	7.8%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	14.7%
90	Bulgaria	UEFA	1.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	4.8%
91	Zambia	CAF	7.3%	0.9%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	13.4%
92	Palestine	AFC	12.0%	1.6%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	32.8%
93	Thailand	AFC	11.8%	1.7%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	32.0%
94	Belarus	UEFA	1.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	5.1%
95	Guatemala	CONCACAF	14.6%	1.7%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	33.0%
96	China PR	AFC	6.4%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	20.3%
97	Bahrain	AFC	5.6%	0.5%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	18.5%
98	Mozambique	CAF	6.0%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	11.8%
99	Vietnam	AFC	8.6%	1.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	25.2%
100	Tajikistan	AFC	5.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	16.6%
101	Luxembourg	UEFA	0.8%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3.2%
102	El Salvador	CONCACAF	6.4%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	18.6%
103	Equatorial Guinea	CAF	3.8%	0.4%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.5%
104	Kyrgyz Republic	AFC	2.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	8.7%
105	Trinidad and Tobago	CONCACAF	5.6%	0.5%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	15.8%
106	Madagascar	CAF	3.8%	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	9.1%
107	Comoros	CAF	3.8%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	9.6%
108	Armenia	UEFA	0.6%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.6%
109	The Gambia	CAF	3.7%	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.8%
110	Mauritania	CAF	2.5%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	7.9%
111	Niger	CAF	2.3%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.4%
112	Lebanon	AFC	1.7%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.8%
113	Libya	CAF	2.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.2%
114	Kenya	CAF	2.3%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.7%
115	Tanzania	CAF	2.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.2%
116	Indonesia	AFC	1.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.6%
117	Kazakhstan	UEFA	0.4%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.5%
118	Sudan	CAF	1.9%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.2%
119	Rwanda	CAF	2.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.3%
120	Togo	CAF	1.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.2%
121	DPR Korea	AFC	0.6%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3.3%
122	Estonia	UEFA	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.2%
123	Namibia	CAF	1.8%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	5.8%
124	Guinea-Bissau	CAF	2.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3.3%
125	Cyprus	UEFA	0.5%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.0%
126	Faroe Islands	UEFA	0.5%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.0%
127	Azerbaijan	UEFA	0.4%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.0%
128	Suriname	CONCACAF	1.9%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	6.4%
129	Zimbabwe	CAF	1.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.7%
130	Sierra Leone	CAF	1.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.4%
131	Malawi	CAF	1.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.3%
132	Congo	CAF	0.8%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.7%
133	Malaysia	AFC	0.5%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.0%
134	Kuwait	AFC	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.1%
135	Dominican Republic	CONCACAF	0.9%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.9%
136	Philippines	AFC	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.6%
137	Nicaragua	CONCACAF	0.6%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.2%
138	India	AFC	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.7%
139	Turkmenistan	AFC	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.8%
140	Burundi	CAF	0.8%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	1.6%
141	Botswana	CAF	0.6%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.5%
142	Guyana	CONCACAF	0.6%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.1%
143	Latvia	UEFA	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.7%
144	Yemen	AFC	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.5%
145	Central African Republic	CAF	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.3%
146	Liberia	CAF	0.3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0%
147	Ethiopia	CAF	0.4%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.5%
148	Lithuania	UEFA	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.8%
149	Singapore	AFC	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.3%
150	Lesotho	CAF	0.2%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.0%
151	St. Kitts and Nevis	CONCACAF	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.4%
152	Solomon Islands	OFC	9.9%	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	36.1%
153	Hong Kong	AFC	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.3%
154	Fiji	OFC	7.0%	0.2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	21.5%
155	Puerto Rico	CONCACAF	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.3%
156	New Caledonia	OFC	5.7%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	18.8%
157	Tahiti	OFC	5.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	18.4%
158	Moldova	UEFA	0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.8%
159	Myanmar	AFC	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
160	Malta	UEFA	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.3%
161	Vanuatu	OFC	4.3%	0.2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	14.9%
162	Antigua and Barbuda	CONCACAF	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.4%
163	Cuba	CONCACAF	0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.3%
164	Eswatini	CAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.4%
165	St. Lucia	CONCACAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.2%
166	St. Vincent / Grenadines	CONCACAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.4%
167	Papua New Guinea	OFC	1.8%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.7%
168	Afghanistan	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
169	Grenada	CONCACAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.2%
170	South Sudan	CAF	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.4%
171	Bermuda	CONCACAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.2%
172	Montserrat	CONCACAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.1%
173	Maldives	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
174	Barbados	CONCACAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
175	Andorra	UEFA	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.2%
176	Chinese Taipei	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
177	Cambodia	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
178	Nepal	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
179	Mauritius	CAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.3%
180	Belize	CONCACAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
181	Chad	CAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.2%
182	Bangladesh	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
183	Eritrea	CAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.1%
184	Sri Lanka	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
185	Aruba	CONCACAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
186	Dominica	CONCACAF	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
187	Cook Islands	OFC	0.4%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.1%
188	Laos	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
189	Samoa	OFC	0.4%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.1%
190	Mongolia	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
191	American Samoa	OFC	0.3%	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1.6%
192	Bhutan	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
193	Macau, China	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
194	São Tomé and Príncipe	CAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.1%
195	Djibouti	CAF	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
196	Brunei	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
197	Pakistan	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
198	Cayman Islands	CONCACAF	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
199	Tonga	OFC	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.9%
200	Somalia	CAF	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.2%
201	Gibraltar	UEFA	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.1%
202	Timor-Leste	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
203	Guam	AFC	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
204	Turks and Caicos Islands	CONCACAF	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
205	Seychelles	CAF	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
206	US Virgin Islands	CONCACAF	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
207	Liechtenstein	UEFA	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%
208	Bahamas	CONCACAF	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
209	British Virgin Islands	CONCACAF	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
210	Anguilla	CONCACAF	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
211	San Marino	UEFA	<0.1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<0.1%

Reading the numbers

A figure near 50% is accurate to within about one percentage point; "<0.1%" means it happened, but fewer than once in a thousand cycles; "0%" means it never happened in 20,000 attempts, which is not the same as impossible. Ratings are those of the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, and the numbers are re-run whenever the simulator moves to a new ranking.

These are averages over thousands of tournaments. Yours will be one of them — play it and see which.

Open the simulator