Kenya and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 114th in the world, 29th in CAF. 2.3% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

114thFIFA ranking, of 211

29thof 54 in CAF

1169rating points

40 / 52attack / defence, out of 100

2.3%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Kenya qualify in 2.3% of simulated campaigns. They would need almost everything to go their way. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (97.7% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Kenya get out of their group 7.2% of the time.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Kenya qualify in 7.7% of campaigns instead of 2.3%.

Qualify2.3%
Round of 320.2%
Round of 16<0.1%
Quarter-finals0%
Semi-finals0%
Final0%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Kenya got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Kenya come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Kenya have 1168.67 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 114th in the world and 29th of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 40 and their defence score 52, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Kenya in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Tanzania	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.50 – 1.18	43%	28%	29%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	0.26 – 2.52	2%	13%	85%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.24 – 2.64	2%	11%	87%

Around them in CAF

Kenya and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
26	Mauritania	110	1176	2.5%	0%
27	Niger	111	1173	2.3%	0%
28	Libya	113	1169	2.4%	0%
29	Kenya	114	1169	2.3%	0%
30	Tanzania	115	1167	2.0%	0%
31	Sudan	118	1157	1.9%	0%
32	Rwanda	119	1156	2.2%	0%

Kenya at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Kenya through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator