Will Bahamas make the 2030 World Cup? Route and chances

Bahamas and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 208th in the world, 33rd in CONCACAF. 0% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

208thFIFA ranking, of 211

33rdof 35 in CONCACAF

772rating points

15 / 2attack / defence, out of 100

0%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Bahamas did not reach the World Cup in any of our 20,000 simulated qualifying campaigns.

Qualify0%

Round of 320%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Bahamas got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Bahamas come in at the first round, the round for the confederation's lowest-ranked nations, and have to win a two-legged tie just to reach the groups.

There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Bahamas have 771.83 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 208th in the world and 33rd of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 15 and their defence score 2, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Bahamas in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
British Virgin Islands	At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking	1.55 – 1.17	45%	28%	28%
Mexico	At home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side	0.22 – 2.85	1%	9%	89%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.21 – 2.98	1%	8%	90%

Around them in CONCACAF

Bahamas and the nations ranked around them in CONCACAF.
In CONCACAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
29	Dominica	186	885	0%	0%
30	Cayman Islands	198	836	0%	0%
31	Turks and Caicos Islands	204	806	0%	0%
32	US Virgin Islands	206	795	0%	0%
33	Bahamas	208	772	0%	0%
34	British Virgin Islands	209	753	0%	0%
35	Anguilla	210	737	0%	0%

Bahamas at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Bahamas through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator