Belarus and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 94th in the world, 40th in UEFA. 1.4% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

94thFIFA ranking, of 211

40thof 55 in UEFA

1250rating points

52 / 69attack / defence, out of 100

1.4%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Belarus qualify in 1.4% of simulated campaigns. They would need almost everything to go their way. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (98.6% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Belarus get out of their group 14.3% of the time.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Belarus qualify in 5.1% of campaigns instead of 1.4%.

Qualify1.4%
Round of 320.2%
Round of 16<0.1%
Quarter-finals0%
Semi-finals0%
Final0%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Belarus got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Belarus come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Belarus have 1249.60 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 94th in the world and 40th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 52 and their defence score 69, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Belarus in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Luxembourg	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.64 – 1.07	49%	27%	24%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.26 – 2.52	2%	13%	85%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.26 – 2.52	2%	13%	85%

Around them in UEFA

Belarus and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
37	Israel	77	1326	5.6%	0%
38	Montenegro	79	1315	5.3%	0%
39	Bulgaria	90	1263	1.4%	0%
40	Belarus	94	1250	1.4%	0%
41	Luxembourg	101	1219	0.8%	0%
42	Armenia	108	1183	0.6%	0%
43	Kazakhstan	117	1166	0.4%	0%

Belarus at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Belarus through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator