Belgium and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 8th in the world, 5th in UEFA. 88.7% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

8thFIFA ranking, of 211

5thof 55 in UEFA

1779rating points

97 / 84attack / defence, out of 100

88.7%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Belgium are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 88.7% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (28.4% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Belgium get out of their group 96.4% of the time and win the tournament in 2.4% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Belgium qualify in 93.3% of campaigns instead of 88.7%.

Qualify88.7%
Round of 3285.5%
Round of 1657.1%
Quarter-finals32.0%
Semi-finals15.6%
Final6.5%
Champions2.4%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Belgium got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Belgium come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Belgium have 1779.17 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 8th in the world and 5th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 97 and their defence score 84, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Belgium in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Netherlands	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.68 – 1.31	45%	27%	29%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.94 – 1.94	17%	24%	59%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.93 – 1.97	16%	24%	60%

Around them in UEFA

Belgium and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
2	France	3	1959	96.2%	15.2%
3	England	4	1926	95.6%	11.5%
4	Portugal Host	5	1808	100%	4.4%
5	Belgium	8	1779	88.7%	2.4%
6	Netherlands	9	1779	88.3%	2.1%
7	Switzerland	12	1725	85.8%	1.2%
8	Germany	13	1718	84.2%	1.0%

Belgium at the World Cup

15World Cups played

Third placebest finish · 2018

2026last World Cup

They have played at 15 World Cups, the first in 1930 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is third place, in 2018.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the quarter-finals, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 6 matches (goals 14–7). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the quarter-finals in 42.2% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Belgium's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
15 June	Group stage	Egypt	1–1	20%
21 June	Group stage	IR Iran	0–0	22%
27 June	Group stage	New Zealand	5–1	87%
1 July	Round of 32	Senegal	3–2 (aet)	58%
7 July	Round of 16	USA	4–1	60%
10 July	Quarter-final	Spain	1–2	69%

Play it out: take Belgium through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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