Will Malawi make the 2030 World Cup? 1.4% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Malawi and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 131st in the world, 38th in CAF. 1.4% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

131stFIFA ranking, of 211

38thof 54 in CAF

1122rating points

37 / 42attack / defence, out of 100

1.4%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Malawi qualify in 1.4% of simulated campaigns. They would need almost everything to go their way. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (98.6% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Malawi get out of their group 6.5% of the time.

Qualify1.4%

Round of 32<0.1%

Round of 16<0.1%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Malawi got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Malawi come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Malawi have 1121.84 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 131st in the world and 38th of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 37 and their defence score 42, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Malawi in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Congo	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.59 – 1.16	46%	28%	27%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	0.25 – 2.59	2%	12%	86%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.71	2%	11%	88%

Around them in CAF

Malawi and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
35	Guinea-Bissau	124	1144	2.1%	0%
36	Zimbabwe	129	1128	1.7%	0%
37	Sierra Leone	130	1123	1.3%	0%
38	Malawi	131	1122	1.4%	0%
39	Congo	132	1102	0.8%	0%
40	Burundi	140	1077	0.8%	0%
41	Botswana	141	1074	0.6%	0%

Malawi at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Malawi through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator