Iraq and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 63rd in the world, 8th in AFC. 52.9% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

63rdFIFA ranking, of 211

8thof 46 in AFC

1401rating points

46 / 56attack / defence, out of 100

52.9%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Iraq qualify in 52.9% of simulated campaigns: more likely to be there than not, with little margin for a bad window. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (47.1% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Iraq get out of their group 25.0% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Iraq qualify in 80.7% of campaigns instead of 52.9%.

Qualify52.9%
Round of 3213.2%
Round of 162.4%
Quarter-finals0.4%
Semi-finals<0.1%
Final<0.1%
Champions<0.1%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Iraq got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Asia's qualifying has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then nine groups of four, then three groups of six from which eight teams qualify. Iraq come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.

There are 8 places for the 46 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Iraq end up in that play-off in 18.3% of simulated campaigns.

AFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Iraq have 1400.91 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 63rd in the world and 8th of the 46 nations in Asia. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 46 and their defence score 56, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Iraq in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
United Arab Emirates	At home to the next side in the AFC ranking	1.51 – 1.23	42%	28%	30%
Japan	At home to AFC's highest-ranked side	0.74 – 2.15	11%	21%	68%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.26 – 2.57	2%	12%	86%

Around them in AFC

Iraq and the nations ranked around them in AFC.
In AFC	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
5	Saudi Arabia	55	1443	82.8%	0%
6	Uzbekistan	59	1417	75.3%	0%
7	Qatar	60	1416	64.0%	<0.1%
8	Iraq	63	1401	52.9%	<0.1%
9	United Arab Emirates	65	1377	51.4%	0%
10	Jordan	72	1351	35.4%	0%
11	Oman	81	1303	17.2%	0%

Iraq at the World Cup

2World Cups played

Group stagebest finish

2026last World Cup

They have played at 2 World Cups, the first in 1986 and the most recent in 2026. They have yet to get past the group stage.

At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 3 matches (goals 1–12). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 23.4% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Iraq's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
16 June	Group stage	Norway	1–4	54%
22 June	Group stage	France	0–3	86%
26 June	Group stage	Senegal	0–5	69%

Play it out: take Iraq through Asia's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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