Russia and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 35th in the world, 16th in UEFA. 36.9% to qualify in our simulations.
Russia have been suspended from FIFA and UEFA competitions since February 2022. They remain in the FIFA ranking, which is why the simulator includes them; if the suspension still applies when qualifying is drawn, they will not take part and these figures will not apply.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Russia qualify in 36.9% of simulated campaigns — less often than not, but well within reach. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (63.1% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Russia get out of their group 67.9% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Russia qualify in 73.8% of campaigns instead of 36.9%.
- Qualify36.9%
- Round of 3225.0%
- Round of 168.4%
- Quarter-finals2.5%
- Semi-finals0.6%
- Final0.1%
- Champions<0.1%
The route to the finals
Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Russia come in at the group stage.
There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.
UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Russia have 1537.45 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 35th in the world and 16th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 88 and their defence score 85, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ukraine | At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking | 1.62 – 1.18 | 46% | 27% | 27% |
 Spain | At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side | 0.35 – 2.29 | 4% | 16% | 80% |
 Argentina | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.35 – 2.30 | 4% | 16% | 80% |
Around them in UEFA
| In UEFA | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 |  Austria |
22 | 1601 | 69.1% | <0.1% |
| 14 |  Türkiye |
31 | 1564 | 61.6% | <0.1% |
| 15 |  Sweden |
34 | 1544 | 34.2% | <0.1% |
| 16 |  Russia |
35 | 1537 | 36.9% | <0.1% |
| 17 | Ukraine |
36 | 1535 | 29.7% | <0.1% |
| 18 |  Poland |
37 | 1515 | 28.7% | 0% |
| 19 |  Hungary |
38 | 1511 | 26.1% | <0.1% |
Russia at the World Cup
They have played at 11 World Cups, the first in 1958 and the most recent in 2018. Their best finish is fourth place, in 1966. The figures include the Soviet Union's, as FIFA counts them. They have missed the last 2 World Cups.
Play it out: take Russia through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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