Uzbekistan and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 59th in the world, 6th in AFC. 75.3% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Uzbekistan are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 75.3% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the group stage (53.0% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Uzbekistan get out of their group 29.6% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 0.9% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Uzbekistan qualify in 90.5% of campaigns instead of 75.3%.
- Qualify75.3%
- Round of 3222.3%
- Round of 164.7%
- Quarter-finals0.9%
- Semi-finals0.1%
- Final<0.1%
- Champions0%
The route to the finals
Asia's qualifying has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then nine groups of four, then three groups of six from which eight teams qualify. Uzbekistan come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.
There are 8 places for the 46 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Uzbekistan end up in that play-off in 31.6% of simulated campaigns.
AFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Uzbekistan have 1416.61 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 59th in the world and 6th of the 46 nations in Asia. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 65 and their defence score 71, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Qatar | At home to the next side in the AFC ranking | 1.56 – 1.19 | 44% | 28% | 28% |
 Japan | At home to AFC's highest-ranked side | 0.81 – 2.04 | 13% | 23% | 64% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.28 – 2.48 | 3% | 13% | 84% |
Around them in AFC
| In AFC | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Australia |
26 | 1581 | 98.3% | 0.2% |
| 4 |  Korea Republic |
32 | 1562 | 97.5% | <0.1% |
| 5 |  Saudi Arabia |
55 | 1443 | 82.8% | 0% |
| 6 |  Uzbekistan |
59 | 1417 | 75.3% | 0% |
| 7 | Qatar |
60 | 1416 | 64.0% | <0.1% |
| 8 |  Iraq |
63 | 1401 | 52.9% | <0.1% |
| 9 |  United Arab Emirates |
65 | 1377 | 51.4% | 0% |
Uzbekistan at the World Cup
They have played at one World Cup, in 2026. They have yet to get past the group stage.
At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 3 matches (goals 2–11). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 36.0% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.
| Date | Round | Opponent | Score | Chance beforehand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 June | Group stage |  Colombia | 1–3 | 69% |
| 23 June | Group stage |  Portugal | 0–5 | 75% |
| 27 June | Group stage |  Congo DR | 1–3 | 41% |
Play it out: take Uzbekistan through Asia's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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