Will Yemen make the 2030 World Cup? <0.1% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Yemen and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 144th in the world, 28th in AFC. <0.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

144thFIFA ranking, of 211

28thof 46 in AFC

1068rating points

55 / 38attack / defence, out of 100

<0.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Yemen reach the World Cup in <0.1% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (>99.9% of cycles).

Qualify<0.1%

Round of 32<0.1%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Yemen got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Asia's qualifying has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then nine groups of four, then three groups of six from which eight teams qualify. Yemen come in at the first round, the round for the confederation's lowest-ranked nations, and have to win a two-legged tie just to reach the groups.

There are 8 places for the 46 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

AFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Yemen have 1067.53 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 144th in the world and 28th of the 46 nations in Asia. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 55 and their defence score 38, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Yemen in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Singapore	At home to the next side in the AFC ranking	1.61 – 1.23	45%	27%	28%
Japan	At home to AFC's highest-ranked side	0.28 – 2.61	2%	12%	86%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.25 – 2.74	2%	11%	88%

Around them in AFC

Yemen and the nations ranked around them in AFC.
In AFC	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
25	Philippines	136	1096	0.2%	0%
26	India	138	1086	<0.1%	0%
27	Turkmenistan	139	1079	<0.1%	0%
28	Yemen	144	1068	<0.1%	0%
29	Singapore	149	1059	<0.1%	0%
30	Hong Kong	153	1035	<0.1%	0%
31	Myanmar	159	1008	<0.1%	0%

Yemen at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Yemen through Asia's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator