Egypt and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 25th in the world, 3rd in CAF. 80.2% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

25thFIFA ranking, of 211

3rdof 54 in CAF

1586rating points

67 / 88attack / defence, out of 100

80.2%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Egypt are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 80.2% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (37.7% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Egypt get out of their group 76.4% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Egypt qualify in 85.3% of campaigns instead of 80.2%.

Qualify80.2%
Round of 3261.3%
Round of 1623.5%
Quarter-finals7.6%
Semi-finals2.1%
Final0.5%
Champions<0.1%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Egypt got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Egypt come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Egypt end up in that play-off in 7.3% of simulated campaigns.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Egypt have 1585.86 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 25th in the world and 3rd of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 67 and their defence score 88, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Egypt in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Algeria	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.51 – 1.23	42%	28%	30%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	0.90 – 1.84	17%	25%	58%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.33 – 2.28	4%	16%	80%

Around them in CAF

Egypt and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
1	Morocco Host	7	1805	100%	3.5%
2	Senegal	18	1649	89.1%	0.4%
3	Egypt	25	1586	80.2%	<0.1%
4	Algeria	28	1575	82.0%	0.1%
5	Côte d'Ivoire	29	1569	80.7%	<0.1%
6	Nigeria	30	1568	80.4%	<0.1%
7	Congo DR	40	1506	69.2%	<0.1%

Egypt at the World Cup

4World Cups played

Round of 16best finish · 2026

2026last World Cup

They have played at 4 World Cups, the first in 1934 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is the round of 16, in 2026.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the round of 16, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in 5 matches (goals 8–7). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the round of 16 in 35.3% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Egypt's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
15 June	Group stage	Belgium	1–1	20%
22 June	Group stage	New Zealand	3–1	73%
27 June	Group stage	IR Iran	1–1	24%
3 July	Round of 32	Australia	1–1 (4–2 pens)	48%
7 July	Round of 16	Argentina	2–3	84%

Play it out: take Egypt through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator