New Caledonia and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 156th in the world, 4th in OFC. 5.7% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
New Caledonia qualify in 5.7% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (94.3% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, New Caledonia get out of their group 2.5% of the time.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, New Caledonia qualify in 18.8% of campaigns instead of 5.7%.
- Qualify5.7%
- Round of 320.1%
- Round of 16<0.1%
- Quarter-finals0%
- Semi-finals0%
- Final0%
- Champions0%
The route to the finals
Oceania plays two groups, then semi-finals and a final. The winner qualifies and the beaten finalist goes to the inter-confederation play-off. New Caledonia come in at the group stage.
There is one place for the 11 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. New Caledonia end up in that play-off in 13.9% of simulated campaigns.
OFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
New Caledonia have 1026.01 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 156th in the world and 4th of the 11 nations in Oceania. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 42 and their defence score 25, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tahiti | At home to the next side in the OFC ranking | 1.60 – 1.27 | 44% | 27% | 29% |
 New Zealand | At home to OFC's highest-ranked side | 0.88 – 2.11 | 14% | 22% | 64% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.24 – 2.83 | 2% | 10% | 89% |
Around them in OFC
| In OFC | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand |
88 | 1277 | 67.6% | 0% |
| 2 |  Solomon Islands |
152 | 1036 | 9.9% | 0% |
| 3 |  Fiji |
154 | 1033 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 4 |  New Caledonia |
156 | 1026 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 5 | Tahiti |
157 | 1016 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 6 |  Vanuatu |
161 | 1006 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 7 |  Papua New Guinea |
167 | 969 | 1.8% | 0% |
New Caledonia at the World Cup
They have never played at a World Cup finals.
Play it out: take New Caledonia through Oceania's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
Open the simulator