Türkiye and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 31st in the world, 14th in UEFA. 61.6% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

31stFIFA ranking, of 211

14thof 55 in UEFA

1564rating points

80 / 65attack / defence, out of 100

61.6%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Türkiye qualify in 61.6% of simulated campaigns: more likely to be there than not, with little margin for a bad window. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (38.4% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Türkiye get out of their group 68.2% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Türkiye qualify in 74.4% of campaigns instead of 61.6%.

Qualify61.6%
Round of 3242.0%
Round of 1614.5%
Quarter-finals4.4%
Semi-finals1.2%
Final0.2%
Champions<0.1%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Türkiye got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Türkiye come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Türkiye have 1563.54 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 31st in the world and 14th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 80 and their defence score 65, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Türkiye in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Sweden	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.69 – 1.29	45%	27%	28%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.60 – 2.39	7%	17%	76%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.36 – 2.40	4%	15%	81%

Around them in UEFA

Türkiye and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
11	Norway	19	1638	75.5%	0.2%
12	Denmark	21	1620	74.5%	0.2%
13	Austria	22	1601	69.1%	<0.1%
14	Türkiye	31	1564	61.6%	<0.1%
15	Sweden	34	1544	34.2%	<0.1%
16	Russia	35	1537	36.9%	<0.1%
17	Ukraine	36	1535	29.7%	<0.1%

Türkiye at the World Cup

3World Cups played

Third placebest finish · 2002

2026last World Cup

They have played at 3 World Cups, the first in 1954 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is third place, in 2002.

At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 3 matches (goals 3–5). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 74.3% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Türkiye's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
14 June	Group stage	Australia	0–2	34%
20 June	Group stage	Paraguay	0–1	25%
26 June	Group stage	USA	3–2	27%

Play it out: take Türkiye through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator