Will St. Lucia make the 2030 World Cup? <0.1% to qualify, <0.1% to win

St. Lucia and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 165th in the world, 21st in CONCACAF. <0.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

165thFIFA ranking, of 211

21stof 35 in CONCACAF

976rating points

39 / 17attack / defence, out of 100

<0.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

St. Lucia reach the World Cup in <0.1% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (>99.9% of cycles).

Qualify<0.1%

Round of 320%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which St. Lucia got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. St. Lucia come in at the first round, the round for the confederation's lowest-ranked nations, and have to win a two-legged tie just to reach the groups.

There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

St. Lucia have 975.85 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 165th in the world and 21st of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 39 and their defence score 17, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from St. Lucia in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
St. Vincent / Grenadines	At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking	1.53 – 1.33	41%	28%	32%
Mexico	At home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side	0.25 – 2.73	2%	11%	88%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.88	1%	9%	89%

Around them in CONCACAF

St. Lucia and the nations ranked around them in CONCACAF.
In CONCACAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
18	Puerto Rico	155	1033	0.3%	0%
19	Antigua and Barbuda	162	993	<0.1%	0%
20	Cuba	163	990	0.1%	0%
21	St. Lucia	165	976	<0.1%	0%
22	St. Vincent / Grenadines	166	975	<0.1%	0%
23	Grenada	169	968	<0.1%	0%
24	Bermuda	171	951	<0.1%	0%

St. Lucia at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take St. Lucia through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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