Saudi Arabia and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 55th in the world, 5th in AFC. 82.8% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

55thFIFA ranking, of 211

5thof 46 in AFC

1443rating points

54 / 83attack / defence, out of 100

82.8%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Saudi Arabia are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 82.8% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the group stage (53.2% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Saudi Arabia get out of their group 35.8% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 1.4% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Saudi Arabia qualify in 93.8% of campaigns instead of 82.8%.

Qualify82.8%
Round of 3229.6%
Round of 166.8%
Quarter-finals1.4%
Semi-finals0.2%
Final<0.1%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Saudi Arabia got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Asia's qualifying has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then nine groups of four, then three groups of six from which eight teams qualify. Saudi Arabia come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.

There are 8 places for the 46 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Saudi Arabia end up in that play-off in 35.8% of simulated campaigns.

AFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Saudi Arabia have 1443.17 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 55th in the world and 5th of the 46 nations in Asia. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 54 and their defence score 83, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Saudi Arabia in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Uzbekistan	At home to the next side in the AFC ranking	1.53 – 1.14	45%	28%	27%
Japan	At home to AFC's highest-ranked side	0.84 – 1.92	15%	24%	61%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.28 – 2.39	3%	14%	83%

Around them in AFC

Saudi Arabia and the nations ranked around them in AFC.
In AFC	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
2	IR Iran	23	1597	99.1%	0.2%
3	Australia	26	1581	98.3%	0.2%
4	Korea Republic	32	1562	97.5%	<0.1%
5	Saudi Arabia	55	1443	82.8%	0%
6	Uzbekistan	59	1417	75.3%	0%
7	Qatar	60	1416	64.0%	<0.1%
8	Iraq	63	1401	52.9%	<0.1%

Saudi Arabia at the World Cup

7World Cups played

Round of 16best finish · 1994

2026last World Cup

They have played at 7 World Cups, the first in 1994 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is the round of 16, in 1994.

At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches (goals 1–5). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 37.0% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Saudi Arabia's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
15 June	Group stage	Uruguay	1–1	18%
21 June	Group stage	Spain	0–4	87%
27 June	Group stage	Cabo Verde	0–0	24%

Play it out: take Saudi Arabia through Asia's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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