Finland and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 75th in the world, 35th in UEFA. 6.7% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

75thFIFA ranking, of 211

35thof 55 in UEFA

1341rating points

57 / 54attack / defence, out of 100

6.7%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Finland qualify in 6.7% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (93.3% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Finland get out of their group 20.2% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in <0.1% of all cycles.

Qualify6.7%
Round of 321.4%
Round of 160.3%
Quarter-finals<0.1%
Semi-finals0%
Final0%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Finland got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Finland come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Finland have 1340.73 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 75th in the world and 35th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 57 and their defence score 54, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Finland in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Kosovo	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.49 – 1.27	41%	28%	31%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.27 – 2.59	2%	12%	86%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.27 – 2.59	2%	12%	86%

Around them in UEFA

Finland and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
32	North Macedonia	71	1351	6.5%	0%
33	Iceland	73	1349	8.0%	0%
34	Georgia	74	1346	7.4%	0%
35	Finland	75	1341	6.7%	0%
36	Kosovo	76	1328	7.2%	0%
37	Israel	77	1326	5.6%	0%
38	Montenegro	79	1315	5.3%	0%

Finland at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Finland through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator