Croatia and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 14th in the world, 9th in UEFA. 81.9% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

14thFIFA ranking, of 211

9thof 55 in UEFA

1715rating points

84 / 66attack / defence, out of 100

81.9%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Croatia are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 81.9% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (33.9% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Croatia get out of their group 90.1% of the time and win the tournament in 0.7% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Croatia qualify in 88.6% of campaigns instead of 81.9%.

Qualify81.9%
Round of 3273.8%
Round of 1639.9%
Quarter-finals18.3%
Semi-finals7.5%
Final2.5%
Champions0.7%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Croatia got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Croatia come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Croatia have 1714.74 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 14th in the world and 9th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 84 and their defence score 66, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Croatia in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Italy	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.59 – 1.35	42%	27%	31%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.79 – 2.17	12%	21%	67%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.78 – 2.19	11%	21%	68%

Around them in UEFA

Croatia and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
6	Netherlands	9	1779	88.3%	2.1%
7	Switzerland	12	1725	85.8%	1.2%
8	Germany	13	1718	84.2%	1.0%
9	Croatia	14	1715	81.9%	0.7%
10	Italy	15	1713	82.4%	0.7%
11	Norway	19	1638	75.5%	0.2%
12	Denmark	21	1620	74.5%	0.2%

Croatia at the World Cup

7World Cups played

Runners-upbest finish · 2018

2026last World Cup

They have played at 7 World Cups, the first in 1998 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is a lost final, in 2018.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the round of 32, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 4 matches (goals 6–7). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the round of 32 in 91.8% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Croatia's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
17 June	Group stage	England	2–4	55%
23 June	Group stage	Panama	1–0	62%
27 June	Group stage	Ghana	2–1	78%
2 July	Round of 32	Portugal	1–2	57%

Play it out: take Croatia through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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