Costa Rica and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 54th in the world, 5th in CONCACAF. 75.7% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Costa Rica are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 75.7% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the group stage (47.7% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Costa Rica get out of their group 37.0% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Costa Rica qualify in 93.9% of campaigns instead of 75.7%.
- Qualify75.7%
- Round of 3228.0%
- Round of 166.5%
- Quarter-finals1.3%
- Semi-finals0.2%
- Final<0.1%
- Champions<0.1%
The route to the finals
Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Costa Rica come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.
There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Costa Rica end up in that play-off in 13.4% of simulated campaigns.
CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Costa Rica have 1444.85 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 54th in the world and 5th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 76 and their defence score 65, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Honduras | At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking | 1.72 – 1.07 | 51% | 27% | 23% |
 Mexico | At home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side | 0.79 – 2.08 | 12% | 22% | 66% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.30 – 2.50 | 3% | 13% | 84% |
Around them in CONCACAF
| In CONCACAF | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  USA |
16 | 1705 | 98.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 |  Canada |
27 | 1575 | 95.8% | 0.1% |
| 4 |  Panama |
46 | 1477 | 77.4% | <0.1% |
| 5 |  Costa Rica |
54 | 1445 | 75.7% | <0.1% |
| 6 | Honduras |
67 | 1375 | 60.3% | 0% |
| 7 |  Jamaica |
69 | 1362 | 41.6% | 0% |
| 8 |  Curaçao |
80 | 1305 | 29.8% | 0% |
Costa Rica at the World Cup
They have played at 6 World Cups, the first in 1990 and the most recent in 2022. Their best finish is the quarter-finals, in 2014. They did not qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
Play it out: take Costa Rica through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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