Will Samoa make the 2030 World Cup? 0.4% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Samoa and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 189th in the world, 9th in OFC. 0.4% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

189thFIFA ranking, of 211

9thof 11 in OFC

876rating points

31 / 12attack / defence, out of 100

0.4%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Samoa reach the World Cup in 0.4% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.6% of cycles).

Qualify0.4%

Round of 32<0.1%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Samoa got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Oceania plays two groups, then semi-finals and a final. The winner qualifies and the beaten finalist goes to the inter-confederation play-off. Samoa come in at the group stage.

There is one place for the 11 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

OFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Samoa have 876.41 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 189th in the world and 9th of the 11 nations in Oceania. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 31 and their defence score 12, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Samoa in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
American Samoa	At home to the next side in the OFC ranking	1.59 – 1.24	44%	27%	28%
New Zealand	At home to OFC's highest-ranked side	0.63 – 2.44	7%	17%	76%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.91	1%	9%	90%

Around them in OFC

Samoa and the nations ranked around them in OFC.
In OFC	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
5	Tahiti	157	1016	5.2%	0%
6	Vanuatu	161	1006	4.3%	0%
7	Papua New Guinea	167	969	1.8%	0%
8	Cook Islands	187	880	0.4%	0%
9	Samoa	189	876	0.4%	0%
10	American Samoa	191	872	0.3%	0%
11	Tonga	199	836	<0.1%	0%

Samoa at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Samoa through Oceania's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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