Will Botswana make the 2030 World Cup? 0.6% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Botswana and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 141st in the world, 41st in CAF. 0.6% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

141stFIFA ranking, of 211

41stof 54 in CAF

1074rating points

36 / 35attack / defence, out of 100

0.6%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Botswana reach the World Cup in 0.6% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.4% of cycles).

Qualify0.6%

Round of 32<0.1%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Botswana got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Botswana come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Botswana have 1073.85 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 141st in the world and 41st of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 36 and their defence score 35, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Botswana in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Central African Republic	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.56 – 1.20	44%	28%	28%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	0.25 – 2.65	2%	11%	87%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.76	2%	10%	88%

Around them in CAF

Botswana and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
38	Malawi	131	1122	1.4%	0%
39	Congo	132	1102	0.8%	0%
40	Burundi	140	1077	0.8%	0%
41	Botswana	141	1074	0.6%	0%
42	Central African Republic	145	1065	0.3%	0%
43	Liberia	146	1065	0.3%	0%
44	Ethiopia	147	1064	0.4%	0%

Botswana at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Botswana through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator