Will Gibraltar make the 2030 World Cup? <0.1% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Gibraltar and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 201st in the world, 53rd in UEFA. <0.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

201stFIFA ranking, of 211

53rdof 55 in UEFA

829rating points

12 / 26attack / defence, out of 100

<0.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Gibraltar reach the World Cup in <0.1% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (>99.9% of cycles).

Qualify<0.1%

Round of 320%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Gibraltar got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Gibraltar come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Gibraltar have 829.49 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 201st in the world and 53rd of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 12 and their defence score 26, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Gibraltar in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Liechtenstein	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.55 – 1.04	47%	28%	24%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.21 – 2.82	1%	9%	89%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.21 – 2.82	1%	10%	89%

Around them in UEFA

Gibraltar and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
49	Lithuania	148	1059	0.2%	0%
50	Moldova	158	1016	0.1%	0%
51	Malta	160	1007	<0.1%	0%
52	Andorra	175	928	<0.1%	0%
53	Gibraltar	201	829	<0.1%	0%
54	Liechtenstein	207	790	0%	0%
55	San Marino	211	716	<0.1%	0%

Gibraltar at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Gibraltar through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator