Lebanon and the 2030 World Cup

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Lebanon qualify in 1.7% of simulated campaigns. They would need almost everything to go their way. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (98.3% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Lebanon get out of their group 9.6% of the time.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Lebanon qualify in 6.8% of campaigns instead of 1.7%.

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Lebanon got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Asia's qualifying has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then nine groups of four, then three groups of six from which eight teams qualify. Lebanon come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.

There are 8 places for the 46 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

AFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Lebanon have 1170.30 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 112th in the world and 20th of the 46 nations in Asia. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 57 and their defence score 62, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

Around them in AFC

Lebanon at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.