Mexico and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 10th in the world, 1st in CONCACAF. 98.4% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

10thFIFA ranking, of 211

1stof 35 in CONCACAF

1738rating points

84 / 97attack / defence, out of 100

98.4%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Mexico are as close to certain qualifiers as the model allows, reaching the finals in 98.4% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (35.7% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Mexico get out of their group 94.7% of the time and win the tournament in 1.5% of all cycles.

Qualify98.4%
Round of 3293.2%
Round of 1657.5%
Quarter-finals29.2%
Semi-finals12.8%
Final4.9%
Champions1.5%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Mexico got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Mexico come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.

There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Mexico have 1738.48 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 10th in the world and 1st of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 84 and their defence score 97, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Mexico in two fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
USA	At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking	1.65 – 1.17	47%	27%	26%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.75 – 2.05	12%	22%	66%

Around them in CONCACAF

Mexico and the nations ranked around them in CONCACAF.
In CONCACAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
1	Mexico	10	1738	98.4%	1.5%
2	USA	16	1705	98.5%	0.8%
3	Canada	27	1575	95.8%	0.1%
4	Panama	46	1477	77.4%	<0.1%
5	Costa Rica	54	1445	75.7%	<0.1%
6	Honduras	67	1375	60.3%	0%
7	Jamaica	69	1362	41.6%	0%

Mexico at the World Cup

18World Cups played

Quarter-finalsbest finish · 1970, 1986

2026last World Cup

They have played at 18 World Cups, the first in 1930 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is the quarter-finals, in 1970 and 1986.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the round of 16, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 5 matches (goals 10–3). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the round of 16 in 62.7% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Mexico's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
11 June	Group stage	South Africa	2–0	71%
19 June	Group stage	Korea Republic	1–0	52%
25 June	Group stage	Czechia	3–0	63%
1 July	Round of 32	Ecuador	2–0	63%
6 July	Round of 16	England	2–3	70%

Play it out: take Mexico through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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