Brazil and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 6th in the world, 2nd in CONMEBOL. >99.9% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

6thFIFA ranking, of 211

2ndof 10 in CONMEBOL

1807rating points

95 / 87attack / defence, out of 100

>99.9%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Brazil are as close to certain qualifiers as the model allows, reaching the finals in >99.9% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (29.4% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Brazil get out of their group 97.1% of the time and win the tournament in 3.4% of all cycles.

Qualify>99.9%
Round of 3297.1%
Round of 1667.7%
Quarter-finals39.4%
Semi-finals20.5%
Final9.2%
Champions3.4%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Brazil got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

South America plays a single league of ten, home and away. With Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay already in as centenary hosts, the top three of the other seven qualify and the fourth goes to the inter-confederation play-off. Brazil play the full league.

There are 3 places for the 7 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CONMEBOL qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Brazil have 1806.51 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 6th in the world and 2nd of the 10 nations in South America. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 95 and their defence score 87, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Brazil in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Colombia	At home to the next side in the CONMEBOL ranking	1.72 – 1.07	51%	27%	22%
Argentina	At home to CONMEBOL's highest-ranked side	1.09 – 1.77	22%	26%	52%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.89 – 1.98	15%	24%	61%

Around them in CONMEBOL

Brazil and the nations ranked around them in CONMEBOL.
In CONMEBOL	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
1	Argentina Centenary host	2	1973	100%	18.2%
2	Brazil	6	1807	>99.9%	3.4%
3	Colombia	11	1736	99.6%	1.6%
4	Uruguay Centenary host	20	1636	100%	0.3%
5	Ecuador	24	1587	83.0%	0.1%
6	Paraguay Centenary host	33	1552	100%	<0.1%
7	Venezuela	49	1466	31.4%	0%

Brazil at the World Cup

23World Cups played

Championsbest finish · 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002

2026last World Cup

They have played at 23 World Cups, the first in 1930 and the most recent in 2026. They have won it five times: 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994 and 2002.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the round of 16, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 5 matches (goals 10–4). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the round of 16 in 61.4% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Brazil's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
13 June	Group stage	Morocco	1–1	24%
20 June	Group stage	Haiti	3–0	87%
24 June	Group stage	Scotland	3–0	71%
29 June	Round of 32	Japan	2–1	65%
5 July	Round of 16	Norway	1–2	24%

Play it out: take Brazil through South America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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