Scotland and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 43rd in the world, 22nd in UEFA. 22.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

43rdFIFA ranking, of 211

22ndof 55 in UEFA

1484rating points

62 / 78attack / defence, out of 100

22.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Scotland qualify in 22.1% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (77.9% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Scotland get out of their group 54.6% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 0.7% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Scotland qualify in 31.4% of campaigns instead of 22.1%.

Qualify22.1%
Round of 3212.1%
Round of 163.0%
Quarter-finals0.7%
Semi-finals0.2%
Final<0.1%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Scotland got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Scotland come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Scotland have 1483.57 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 43rd in the world and 22nd of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 62 and their defence score 78, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Scotland in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Serbia	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.53 – 1.17	44%	28%	28%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.31 – 2.38	3%	15%	82%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.31 – 2.38	3%	15%	82%

Around them in UEFA

Scotland and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
19	Hungary	38	1511	26.1%	<0.1%
20	Wales	39	1510	24.0%	0%
21	Greece	41	1499	27.0%	<0.1%
22	Scotland	43	1484	22.1%	0%
23	Serbia	44	1482	18.7%	0%
24	Slovakia	45	1477	21.6%	<0.1%
25	Czechia	51	1457	16.9%	<0.1%

Scotland at the World Cup

9World Cups played

Group stagebest finish

2026last World Cup

They have played at 9 World Cups, the first in 1954 and the most recent in 2026. They have yet to get past the group stage.

At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 3 matches (goals 1–4). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 59.9% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Scotland's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
14 June	Group stage	Haiti	1–0	66%
19 June	Group stage	Morocco	0–1	71%
24 June	Group stage	Brazil	0–3	71%

Play it out: take Scotland through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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