Tunisia and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 61st in the world, 11th in CAF. 26.6% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

61stFIFA ranking, of 211

11thof 54 in CAF

1415rating points

64 / 59attack / defence, out of 100

26.6%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Tunisia qualify in 26.6% of simulated campaigns — less often than not, but well within reach. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (73.4% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Tunisia get out of their group 27.8% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 0.2% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Tunisia qualify in 66.1% of campaigns instead of 26.6%.

Qualify26.6%
Round of 327.4%
Round of 161.4%
Quarter-finals0.2%
Semi-finals<0.1%
Final<0.1%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Tunisia got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Tunisia come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Tunisia end up in that play-off in 12.2% of simulated campaigns.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Tunisia have 1415.38 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 61st in the world and 11th of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 64 and their defence score 59, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Tunisia in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Burkina Faso	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.54 – 1.26	42%	28%	30%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	0.63 – 2.29	8%	19%	73%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.28 – 2.55	2%	13%	85%

Around them in CAF

Tunisia and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
8	Cameroon	42	1485	65.5%	0%
9	Mali	47	1474	64.2%	0%
10	South Africa	48	1469	39.0%	0%
11	Tunisia	61	1415	26.6%	0%
12	Burkina Faso	62	1408	26.5%	0%
13	Cabo Verde	68	1374	21.6%	0%
14	Ghana	70	1361	19.1%	0%

Tunisia at the World Cup

7World Cups played

Group stagebest finish

2026last World Cup

They have played at 7 World Cups, the first in 1978 and the most recent in 2026. They have yet to get past the group stage.

At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 3 matches (goals 2–12). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 38.6% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Tunisia's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
15 June	Group stage	Sweden	1–5	42%
21 June	Group stage	Japan	0–4	63%
25 June	Group stage	Netherlands	1–3	72%

Play it out: take Tunisia through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator