IR Iran and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 23rd in the world, 2nd in AFC. 99.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

23rdFIFA ranking, of 211

2ndof 46 in AFC

1597rating points

76 / 85attack / defence, out of 100

99.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

IR Iran are as close to certain qualifiers as the model allows, reaching the finals in 99.1% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (47.1% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, IR Iran get out of their group 80.6% of the time and win the tournament in 0.2% of all cycles.

Qualify99.1%
Round of 3279.9%
Round of 1632.8%
Quarter-finals11.4%
Semi-finals3.4%
Final0.9%
Champions0.2%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which IR Iran got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Asia's qualifying has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then nine groups of four, then three groups of six from which eight teams qualify. IR Iran come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.

There are 8 places for the 46 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. IR Iran end up in that play-off in 4.2% of simulated campaigns.

AFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

IR Iran have 1597.31 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 23rd in the world and 2nd of the 46 nations in Asia. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 76 and their defence score 85, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from IR Iran in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Australia	At home to the next side in the AFC ranking	1.54 – 1.18	44%	28%	28%
Japan	At home to AFC's highest-ranked side	1.25 – 1.53	30%	28%	42%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.35 – 2.28	4%	16%	80%

Around them in AFC

IR Iran and the nations ranked around them in AFC.
In AFC	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
1	Japan	17	1685	99.7%	0.9%
2	IR Iran	23	1597	99.1%	0.2%
3	Australia	26	1581	98.3%	0.2%
4	Korea Republic	32	1562	97.5%	<0.1%
5	Saudi Arabia	55	1443	82.8%	0%
6	Uzbekistan	59	1417	75.3%	0%
7	Qatar	60	1416	64.0%	<0.1%

IR Iran at the World Cup

7World Cups played

Group stagebest finish

2026last World Cup

They have played at 7 World Cups, the first in 1978 and the most recent in 2026. They have yet to get past the group stage.

At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 0 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in 3 matches (goals 3–3). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 87.2% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

IR Iran's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
16 June	Group stage	New Zealand	2–2	15%
21 June	Group stage	Belgium	0–0	22%
27 June	Group stage	Egypt	1–1	24%

Play it out: take IR Iran through Asia's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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