Will Nicaragua make the 2030 World Cup? 0.6% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Nicaragua and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 137th in the world, 15th in CONCACAF. 0.6% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

137thFIFA ranking, of 211

15thof 35 in CONCACAF

1091rating points

35 / 34attack / defence, out of 100

0.6%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Nicaragua reach the World Cup in 0.6% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.4% of cycles).

Qualify0.6%

Round of 32<0.1%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Nicaragua got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Nicaragua come in at the first round, the round for the confederation's lowest-ranked nations, and have to win a two-legged tie just to reach the groups.

There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Nicaragua have 1090.80 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 137th in the world and 15th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 35 and their defence score 34, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Nicaragua in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Guyana	At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking	1.54 – 1.27	42%	28%	30%
Mexico	At home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side	0.26 – 2.59	2%	12%	86%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.77	2%	10%	88%

Around them in CONCACAF

Nicaragua and the nations ranked around them in CONCACAF.
In CONCACAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
12	Trinidad and Tobago	105	1199	5.6%	0%
13	Suriname	128	1138	1.9%	0%
14	Dominican Republic	135	1097	0.9%	0%
15	Nicaragua	137	1091	0.6%	0%
16	Guyana	142	1071	0.6%	0%
17	St. Kitts and Nevis	151	1041	0.3%	0%
18	Puerto Rico	155	1033	0.3%	0%

Nicaragua at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Nicaragua through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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