United Arab Emirates and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 65th in the world, 9th in AFC. 51.4% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
United Arab Emirates qualify in 51.4% of simulated campaigns: more likely to be there than not, with little margin for a bad window. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (48.6% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, United Arab Emirates get out of their group 24.1% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 0.4% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, United Arab Emirates qualify in 79.3% of campaigns instead of 51.4%.
- Qualify51.4%
- Round of 3212.4%
- Round of 162.3%
- Quarter-finals0.4%
- Semi-finals<0.1%
- Final0%
- Champions0%
The route to the finals
Asia's qualifying has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then nine groups of four, then three groups of six from which eight teams qualify. United Arab Emirates come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.
There are 8 places for the 46 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. United Arab Emirates end up in that play-off in 6.5% of simulated campaigns.
AFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
United Arab Emirates have 1376.95 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 65th in the world and 9th of the 46 nations in Asia. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 67 and their defence score 65, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jordan | At home to the next side in the AFC ranking | 1.63 – 1.20 | 46% | 27% | 27% |
 Japan | At home to AFC's highest-ranked side | 0.75 – 2.14 | 11% | 21% | 68% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.28 – 2.53 | 2% | 13% | 85% |
Around them in AFC
| In AFC | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |  Uzbekistan |
59 | 1417 | 75.3% | 0% |
| 7 |  Qatar |
60 | 1416 | 64.0% | <0.1% |
| 8 |  Iraq |
63 | 1401 | 52.9% | <0.1% |
| 9 |  United Arab Emirates |
65 | 1377 | 51.4% | 0% |
| 10 | Jordan |
72 | 1351 | 35.4% | 0% |
| 11 |  Oman |
81 | 1303 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 12 |  Syria |
86 | 1280 | 17.3% | 0% |
United Arab Emirates at the World Cup
They have played at one World Cup, in 1990. They have yet to get past the group stage. They have missed the last 9 World Cups.
Play it out: take United Arab Emirates through Asia's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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