Vanuatu and the 2030 World Cup

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Vanuatu qualify in 4.3% of simulated campaigns. They would need almost everything to go their way. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (95.7% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Vanuatu get out of their group 3.6% of the time.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Vanuatu qualify in 14.9% of campaigns instead of 4.3%.

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Vanuatu got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Oceania plays two groups, then semi-finals and a final. The winner qualifies and the beaten finalist goes to the inter-confederation play-off. Vanuatu come in at the group stage.

There is one place for the 11 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Vanuatu end up in that play-off in 11.6% of simulated campaigns.

OFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Vanuatu have 1005.90 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 161st in the world and 6th of the 11 nations in Oceania. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 43 and their defence score 25, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

Around them in OFC

Vanuatu at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.