Will Azerbaijan make the 2030 World Cup? 0.4% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Azerbaijan and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 127th in the world, 47th in UEFA. 0.4% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

127thFIFA ranking, of 211

47thof 55 in UEFA

1139rating points

36 / 42attack / defence, out of 100

0.4%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Azerbaijan reach the World Cup in 0.4% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.6% of cycles).

Qualify0.4%

Round of 32<0.1%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Azerbaijan got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Azerbaijan come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Azerbaijan have 1138.96 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 127th in the world and 47th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 36 and their defence score 42, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Azerbaijan in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Latvia	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.67 – 1.01	51%	27%	22%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.24 – 2.71	2%	11%	88%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.24 – 2.71	2%	11%	88%

Around them in UEFA

Azerbaijan and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
44	Estonia	122	1147	0.4%	0%
45	Cyprus	125	1142	0.5%	0%
46	Faroe Islands	126	1140	0.5%	0%
47	Azerbaijan	127	1139	0.4%	0%
48	Latvia	143	1069	0.2%	0%
49	Lithuania	148	1059	0.2%	0%
50	Moldova	158	1016	0.1%	0%

Azerbaijan at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Azerbaijan through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator