Sweden and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 34th in the world, 15th in UEFA. 34.2% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

34thFIFA ranking, of 211

15thof 55 in UEFA

1544rating points

86 / 55attack / defence, out of 100

34.2%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Sweden qualify in 34.2% of simulated campaigns — less often than not, but well within reach. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (65.8% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Sweden get out of their group 65.4% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Sweden qualify in 71.8% of campaigns instead of 34.2%.

Qualify34.2%
Round of 3222.4%
Round of 166.9%
Quarter-finals1.9%
Semi-finals0.5%
Final<0.1%
Champions<0.1%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Sweden got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Sweden come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Sweden have 1543.80 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 34th in the world and 15th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 86 and their defence score 55, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Sweden in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Russia	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.56 – 1.36	41%	27%	32%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.36 – 2.47	4%	14%	82%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.35 – 2.48	3%	14%	82%

Around them in UEFA

Sweden and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
12	Denmark	21	1620	74.5%	0.2%
13	Austria	22	1601	69.1%	<0.1%
14	Türkiye	31	1564	61.6%	<0.1%
15	Sweden	34	1544	34.2%	<0.1%
16	Russia	35	1537	36.9%	<0.1%
17	Ukraine	36	1535	29.7%	<0.1%
18	Poland	37	1515	28.7%	0%

Sweden at the World Cup

13World Cups played

Runners-upbest finish · 1958

2026last World Cup

They have played at 13 World Cups, the first in 1934 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is a lost final, in 1958.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the round of 32, with 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 4 matches (goals 7–10). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the round of 32 in 48.1% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Sweden's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
15 June	Group stage	Tunisia	5–1	42%
20 June	Group stage	Netherlands	1–5	70%
25 June	Group stage	Japan	1–1	21%
30 June	Round of 32	France	0–3	87%

Play it out: take Sweden through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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