Will Moldova make the 2030 World Cup? 0.1% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Moldova and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 158th in the world, 50th in UEFA. 0.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

158thFIFA ranking, of 211

50thof 55 in UEFA

1016rating points

28 / 21attack / defence, out of 100

0.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Moldova reach the World Cup in 0.1% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.9% of cycles).

Qualify0.1%

Round of 320%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Moldova got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Moldova come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Moldova have 1015.57 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 158th in the world and 50th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 28 and their defence score 21, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Moldova in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Malta	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.46 – 1.23	41%	28%	31%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.23 – 2.85	1%	9%	89%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.85	1%	9%	89%

Around them in UEFA

Moldova and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
47	Azerbaijan	127	1139	0.4%	0%
48	Latvia	143	1069	0.2%	0%
49	Lithuania	148	1059	0.2%	0%
50	Moldova	158	1016	0.1%	0%
51	Malta	160	1007	<0.1%	0%
52	Andorra	175	928	<0.1%	0%
53	Gibraltar	201	829	<0.1%	0%

Moldova at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Moldova through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator