Madagascar and the 2030 World Cup

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Madagascar qualify in 3.8% of simulated campaigns. They would need almost everything to go their way. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (96.2% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Madagascar get out of their group 8.7% of the time.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Madagascar qualify in 9.1% of campaigns instead of 3.8%.

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Madagascar got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Madagascar come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Madagascar have 1197.24 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 106th in the world and 23rd of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 57 and their defence score 41, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

Around them in CAF

Madagascar at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.