Guatemala and the 2030 World Cup

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Guatemala qualify in 14.6% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (85.4% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Guatemala get out of their group 11.8% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in <0.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Guatemala qualify in 33.0% of campaigns instead of 14.6%.

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Guatemala got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Guatemala come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.

There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Guatemala end up in that play-off in 10% of simulated campaigns.

CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Guatemala have 1245.10 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 95th in the world and 10th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 63 and their defence score 59, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

Around them in CONCACAF

Guatemala at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.