Iceland and the 2030 World Cup

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Iceland qualify in 8.0% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (92.0% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Iceland get out of their group 21.6% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in <0.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Iceland qualify in 15.6% of campaigns instead of 8.0%.

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Iceland got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Iceland come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Iceland have 1349.42 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 73rd in the world and 33rd of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 72 and their defence score 66, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

Around them in UEFA

Iceland at the World Cup

They have played at one World Cup, in 2018. They have yet to get past the group stage. They have missed the last 2 World Cups.