Montenegro and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 79th in the world, 38th in UEFA. 5.3% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

79thFIFA ranking, of 211

38thof 55 in UEFA

1315rating points

57 / 49attack / defence, out of 100

5.3%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Montenegro qualify in 5.3% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (94.7% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Montenegro get out of their group 14.0% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in <0.1% of all cycles.

Qualify5.3%
Round of 320.7%
Round of 16<0.1%
Quarter-finals<0.1%
Semi-finals<0.1%
Final0%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Montenegro got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Montenegro come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Montenegro have 1315.49 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 79th in the world and 38th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 57 and their defence score 49, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Montenegro in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Bulgaria	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.67 – 1.12	49%	27%	24%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.27 – 2.63	2%	12%	86%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.27 – 2.63	2%	12%	86%

Around them in UEFA

Montenegro and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
35	Finland	75	1341	6.7%	0%
36	Kosovo	76	1328	7.2%	0%
37	Israel	77	1326	5.6%	0%
38	Montenegro	79	1315	5.3%	0%
39	Bulgaria	90	1263	1.4%	0%
40	Belarus	94	1250	1.4%	0%
41	Luxembourg	101	1219	0.8%	0%

Montenegro at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Montenegro through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator