England and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 4th in the world, 3rd in UEFA. 95.6% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

4thFIFA ranking, of 211

3rdof 55 in UEFA

1926rating points

99 / 98attack / defence, out of 100

95.6%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

England are as close to certain qualifiers as the model allows, reaching the finals in 95.6% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 16 (21.2% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, England get out of their group 99.0% of the time and win the tournament in 11.5% of all cycles.

Qualify95.6%
Round of 3294.7%
Round of 1676.3%
Quarter-finals55.0%
Semi-finals36.3%
Final21.8%
Champions11.5%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which England got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. England come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

England have 1925.59 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 4th in the world and 3rd of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 99 and their defence score 98, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from England in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Portugal	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.89 – 0.98	57%	25%	18%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	1.30 – 1.51	32%	28%	41%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	1.29 – 1.54	30%	28%	42%

Around them in UEFA

England and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
1	Spain Host	1	2012	100%	28.7%
2	France	3	1959	96.2%	15.2%
3	England	4	1926	95.6%	11.5%
4	Portugal Host	5	1808	100%	4.4%
5	Belgium	8	1779	88.7%	2.4%
6	Netherlands	9	1779	88.3%	2.1%
7	Switzerland	12	1725	85.8%	1.2%

England at the World Cup

17World Cups played

Championsbest finish · 1966

2026last World Cup

They have played at 17 World Cups, the first in 1950 and the most recent in 2026. They have won it once: 1966.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the semi-finals, with 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 8 matches (goals 20–12). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the semi-finals in 34.2% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

England's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
17 June	Group stage	Croatia	4–2	55%
23 June	Group stage	Ghana	0–0	10%
27 June	Group stage	Panama	2–0	74%
1 July	Round of 32	Congo DR	2–1	86%
6 July	Round of 16	Mexico	3–2	70%
11 July	Quarter-final	Norway	2–1 (aet)	82%
15 July	Semi-final	Argentina	1–2	57%
18 July	Third place	France	6–4	44%

Play it out: take England through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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