Qatar and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 60th in the world, 7th in AFC. 64.0% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

60thFIFA ranking, of 211

7thof 46 in AFC

1416rating points

50 / 59attack / defence, out of 100

64.0%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Qatar qualify in 64.0% of simulated campaigns: more likely to be there than not, with little margin for a bad window. The single most likely outcome is going out in the group stage (46.7% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Qatar get out of their group 27.0% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Qatar qualify in 86.5% of campaigns instead of 64.0%.

Qualify64.0%
Round of 3217.3%
Round of 163.3%
Quarter-finals0.7%
Semi-finals<0.1%
Final<0.1%
Champions<0.1%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Qatar got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Asia's qualifying has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then nine groups of four, then three groups of six from which eight teams qualify. Qatar come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.

There are 8 places for the 46 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Qatar end up in that play-off in 30.1% of simulated campaigns.

AFC qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Qatar have 1416.47 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 60th in the world and 7th of the 46 nations in Asia. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 50 and their defence score 59, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Qatar in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Iraq	At home to the next side in the AFC ranking	1.54 – 1.17	44%	28%	28%
Japan	At home to AFC's highest-ranked side	0.78 – 2.10	12%	22%	66%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.27 – 2.55	2%	12%	85%

Around them in AFC

Qatar and the nations ranked around them in AFC.
In AFC	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
4	Korea Republic	32	1562	97.5%	<0.1%
5	Saudi Arabia	55	1443	82.8%	0%
6	Uzbekistan	59	1417	75.3%	0%
7	Qatar	60	1416	64.0%	<0.1%
8	Iraq	63	1401	52.9%	<0.1%
9	United Arab Emirates	65	1377	51.4%	0%
10	Jordan	72	1351	35.4%	0%

Qatar at the World Cup

2World Cups played

Group stagebest finish

2026last World Cup

They have played at 2 World Cups, the first in 2022 and the most recent in 2026. They have yet to get past the group stage.

At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches (goals 2–10). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 55.8% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Qatar's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
13 June	Group stage	Switzerland	1–1	20%
18 June	Group stage	Canada	0–6	54%
24 June	Group stage	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1–3	29%

Play it out: take Qatar through Asia's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator