Panama and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 46th in the world, 4th in CONCACAF. 77.4% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Panama are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 77.4% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the group stage (38.4% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Panama get out of their group 50.3% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Panama qualify in 95.3% of campaigns instead of 77.4%.
- Qualify77.4%
- Round of 3239.0%
- Round of 169.7%
- Quarter-finals2.1%
- Semi-finals0.5%
- Final<0.1%
- Champions<0.1%
The route to the finals
Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Panama come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.
There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. Panama end up in that play-off in 10.3% of simulated campaigns.
CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Panama have 1476.97 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 46th in the world and 4th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 58 and their defence score 62, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Costa Rica | At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking | 1.58 – 1.23 | 44% | 28% | 28% |
 Mexico | At home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side | 0.80 – 2.03 | 13% | 23% | 64% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.29 – 2.51 | 3% | 13% | 84% |
Around them in CONCACAF
| In CONCACAF | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico |
10 | 1738 | 98.4% | 1.5% |
| 2 |  USA |
16 | 1705 | 98.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 |  Canada |
27 | 1575 | 95.8% | 0.1% |
| 4 |  Panama |
46 | 1477 | 77.4% | <0.1% |
| 5 | Costa Rica |
54 | 1445 | 75.7% | <0.1% |
| 6 |  Honduras |
67 | 1375 | 60.3% | 0% |
| 7 |  Jamaica |
69 | 1362 | 41.6% | 0% |
Panama at the World Cup
They have played at 2 World Cups, the first in 2018 and the most recent in 2026. They have yet to get past the group stage.
At the 2026 World Cup they went out in the group stage, with 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 3 matches (goals 0–4). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them getting out of their group in 61.6% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.
| Date | Round | Opponent | Score | Chance beforehand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 June | Group stage |  Ghana | 0–1 | 16% |
| 23 June | Group stage |  Croatia | 0–1 | 62% |
| 27 June | Group stage |  England | 0–2 | 74% |
Play it out: take Panama through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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