Colombia and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 11th in the world, 3rd in CONMEBOL. 99.6% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

11thFIFA ranking, of 211

3rdof 10 in CONMEBOL

1736rating points

80 / 96attack / defence, out of 100

99.6%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Colombia are as close to certain qualifiers as the model allows, reaching the finals in 99.6% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (37.1% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Colombia get out of their group 94.7% of the time and win the tournament in 1.6% of all cycles.

Qualify99.6%
Round of 3294.3%
Round of 1657.3%
Quarter-finals28.6%
Semi-finals12.6%
Final4.8%
Champions1.6%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Colombia got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

South America plays a single league of ten, home and away. With Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay already in as centenary hosts, the top three of the other seven qualify and the fourth goes to the inter-confederation play-off. Colombia play the full league.

There are 3 places for the 7 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CONMEBOL qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Colombia have 1735.80 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 11th in the world and 3rd of the 10 nations in South America. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 80 and their defence score 96, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Colombia in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Uruguay	At home to the next side in the CONMEBOL ranking	1.78 – 0.96	55%	26%	19%
Argentina	At home to CONMEBOL's highest-ranked side	0.90 – 1.89	16%	24%	59%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.74 – 2.06	12%	22%	66%

Around them in CONMEBOL

Colombia and the nations ranked around them in CONMEBOL.
In CONMEBOL	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
1	Argentina Centenary host	2	1973	100%	18.2%
2	Brazil	6	1807	>99.9%	3.4%
3	Colombia	11	1736	99.6%	1.6%
4	Uruguay Centenary host	20	1636	100%	0.3%
5	Ecuador	24	1587	83.0%	0.1%
6	Paraguay Centenary host	33	1552	100%	<0.1%
7	Venezuela	49	1466	31.4%	0%

Colombia at the World Cup

7World Cups played

Quarter-finalsbest finish · 2014

2026last World Cup

They have played at 7 World Cups, the first in 1962 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is the quarter-finals, in 2014.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the round of 16, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 5 matches (goals 5–1). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the round of 16 in 48.5% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

Colombia's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
18 June	Group stage	Uzbekistan	3–1	69%
24 June	Group stage	Congo DR	1–0	67%
27 June	Group stage	Portugal	0–0	24%
4 July	Round of 32	Ghana	1–0	86%
7 July	Round of 16	Switzerland	0–0 (3–4 pens)	43%

Play it out: take Colombia through South America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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