Italy and the 2030 World Cup

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Italy are strong favourites to qualify, doing so in 82.4% of simulated campaigns. The single most likely outcome is going out in the round of 32 (33.1% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Italy get out of their group 90.3% of the time and win the tournament in 0.7% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Italy qualify in 89.0% of campaigns instead of 82.4%.

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Italy got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Italy come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Italy have 1713.04 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 15th in the world and 10th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 90 and their defence score 73, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

Around them in UEFA

Italy at the World Cup

They have played at 18 World Cups, the first in 1934 and the most recent in 2014. They have won it four times: 1934, 1938, 1982 and 2006. They have missed the last 3 World Cups.