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Aruba and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 185th in the world, 28th in CONCACAF. <0.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

185thFIFA ranking, of 211
28thof 35 in CONCACAF
890rating points
38 / 24attack / defence, out of 100
<0.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Aruba reach the World Cup in <0.1% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (>99.9% of cycles).

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Aruba got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. Aruba come in at the first round, the round for the confederation's lowest-ranked nations, and have to win a two-legged tie just to reach the groups.

There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Aruba have 889.53 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 185th in the world and 28th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 38 and their defence score 24, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side that is better going forward than at the back, which in the model means higher-scoring games in both directions.

What the match engine expects from Aruba in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
OpponentFixtureExpected goalsWinDrawLose
DominicaAt home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking 1.58 – 1.18 45%28%27%
MexicoAt home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side 0.24 – 2.70 2%11%87%
SpainAgainst the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground 0.23 – 2.84 2%10%89%

Around them in CONCACAF

Aruba and the nations ranked around them in CONCACAF.
In CONCACAFNationFIFA rankPointsQualifiesChampion
25Montserrat 172939 <0.1%0%
26Barbados 174935 <0.1%0%
27Belize 180900 <0.1%0%
28Aruba 185890 <0.1%0%
29Dominica 186885 0%0%
30Cayman Islands 198836 0%0%
31Turks and Caicos Islands 204806 0%0%

Aruba at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Aruba through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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