Hungary and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 38th in the world, 19th in UEFA. 26.1% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

38thFIFA ranking, of 211

19thof 55 in UEFA

1511rating points

61 / 77attack / defence, out of 100

26.1%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Hungary qualify in 26.1% of simulated campaigns — less often than not, but well within reach. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (73.9% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, Hungary get out of their group 59.3% of the time and win the tournament in <0.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Hungary qualify in 37.3% of campaigns instead of 26.1%.

Qualify26.1%
Round of 3215.5%
Round of 164.2%
Quarter-finals1.0%
Semi-finals0.2%
Final<0.1%
Champions<0.1%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Hungary got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Hungary come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Hungary have 1511.24 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 38th in the world and 19th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 61 and their defence score 77, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Hungary in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Wales	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.54 – 1.23	43%	28%	29%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.32 – 2.36	3%	15%	82%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.32 – 2.37	3%	15%	82%

Around them in UEFA

Hungary and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
16	Russia	35	1537	36.9%	<0.1%
17	Ukraine	36	1535	29.7%	<0.1%
18	Poland	37	1515	28.7%	0%
19	Hungary	38	1511	26.1%	<0.1%
20	Wales	39	1510	24.0%	0%
21	Greece	41	1499	27.0%	<0.1%
22	Scotland	43	1484	22.1%	0%

Hungary at the World Cup

9World Cups played

Runners-upbest finish · 1938, 1954

1986last World Cup

They have played at 9 World Cups, the first in 1934 and the most recent in 1986. Their best finish is a lost final, in 1938 and 1954. They have missed the last 10 World Cups.

Play it out: take Hungary through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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