Will Lithuania make the 2030 World Cup? 0.2% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Lithuania and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 148th in the world, 49th in UEFA. 0.2% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

148thFIFA ranking, of 211

49thof 55 in UEFA

1059rating points

28 / 40attack / defence, out of 100

0.2%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Lithuania reach the World Cup in 0.2% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.8% of cycles).

Qualify0.2%

Round of 32<0.1%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Lithuania got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Lithuania come in at the group stage.

There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.

UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Lithuania have 1059.28 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 148th in the world and 49th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 28 and their defence score 40, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Lithuania in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Moldova	At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking	1.63 – 1.09	48%	27%	24%
Spain	At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side	0.23 – 2.73	2%	10%	88%
Argentina	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.73	2%	10%	88%

Around them in UEFA

Lithuania and the nations ranked around them in UEFA.
In UEFA	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
46	Faroe Islands	126	1140	0.5%	0%
47	Azerbaijan	127	1139	0.4%	0%
48	Latvia	143	1069	0.2%	0%
49	Lithuania	148	1059	0.2%	0%
50	Moldova	158	1016	0.1%	0%
51	Malta	160	1007	<0.1%	0%
52	Andorra	175	928	<0.1%	0%

Lithuania at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Lithuania through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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