Will Lesotho make the 2030 World Cup? 0.2% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Lesotho and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 150th in the world, 45th in CAF. 0.2% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

150thFIFA ranking, of 211

45thof 54 in CAF

1053rating points

23 / 42attack / defence, out of 100

0.2%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Lesotho reach the World Cup in 0.2% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.8% of cycles).

Qualify0.2%

Round of 32<0.1%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Lesotho got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Lesotho come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Lesotho have 1053.09 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 150th in the world and 45th of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 23 and their defence score 42, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from Lesotho in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Eswatini	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.67 – 0.99	52%	27%	21%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	0.24 – 2.61	2%	12%	87%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.22 – 2.72	2%	10%	88%

Around them in CAF

Lesotho and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
42	Central African Republic	145	1065	0.3%	0%
43	Liberia	146	1065	0.3%	0%
44	Ethiopia	147	1064	0.4%	0%
45	Lesotho	150	1053	0.2%	0%
46	Eswatini	164	979	<0.1%	0%
47	South Sudan	170	960	<0.1%	0%
48	Mauritius	179	906	<0.1%	0%

Lesotho at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Lesotho through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator