El Salvador and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 102nd in the world, 11th in CONCACAF. 6.4% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
El Salvador qualify in 6.4% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (93.6% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, El Salvador get out of their group 8.5% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in <0.1% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, El Salvador qualify in 18.6% of campaigns instead of 6.4%.
- Qualify6.4%
- Round of 320.5%
- Round of 16<0.1%
- Quarter-finals<0.1%
- Semi-finals0%
- Final0%
- Champions0%
The route to the finals
Qualifying in North and Central America and the Caribbean has three rounds: two-legged ties for the lowest-ranked nations, then six groups of four, then a final round of three groups from which the top two in each qualify. El Salvador come in at the second round, skipping the preliminary ties on the strength of their ranking.
There are 6 places for the 35 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. El Salvador end up in that play-off in 4.9% of simulated campaigns.
CONCACAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
El Salvador have 1212.40 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 102nd in the world and 11th of the 35 nations in North & Central America and the Caribbean. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 33 and their defence score 44, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trinidad and Tobago | At home to the next side in the CONCACAF ranking | 1.53 – 1.24 | 42% | 28% | 30% |
 Mexico | At home to CONCACAF's highest-ranked side | 0.28 – 2.47 | 3% | 13% | 84% |
 Spain | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.24 – 2.69 | 2% | 11% | 87% |
Around them in CONCACAF
| In CONCACAF | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Curaçao |
80 | 1305 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 9 |  Haiti |
84 | 1281 | 22.4% | 0% |
| 10 |  Guatemala |
95 | 1245 | 14.6% | 0% |
| 11 |  El Salvador |
102 | 1212 | 6.4% | 0% |
| 12 | Trinidad and Tobago |
105 | 1199 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 13 |  Suriname |
128 | 1138 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 14 |  Dominican Republic |
135 | 1097 | 0.9% | 0% |
El Salvador at the World Cup
They have played at 2 World Cups, the first in 1970 and the most recent in 1982. They have yet to get past the group stage. They have missed the last 11 World Cups.
Play it out: take El Salvador through North America's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
Open the simulator