South Africa and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 48th in the world, 10th in CAF. 39.0% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

48thFIFA ranking, of 211

10thof 54 in CAF

1469rating points

67 / 81attack / defence, out of 100

39.0%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

South Africa qualify in 39.0% of simulated campaigns — less often than not, but well within reach. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (61.0% of cycles).

When they are at the finals, South Africa get out of their group 46.6% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 1.1% of all cycles.

A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, South Africa qualify in 74.7% of campaigns instead of 39.0%.

Qualify39.0%
Round of 3218.2%
Round of 164.6%
Quarter-finals1.1%
Semi-finals0.2%
Final<0.1%
Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which South Africa got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. South Africa come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground. South Africa end up in that play-off in 12.6% of simulated campaigns.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

South Africa have 1468.88 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 48th in the world and 10th of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 67 and their defence score 81, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.

What the match engine expects from South Africa in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Tunisia	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.71 – 1.08	50%	27%	23%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	0.70 – 2.09	11%	21%	68%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.29 – 2.39	3%	14%	83%

Around them in CAF

South Africa and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
7	Congo DR	40	1506	69.2%	<0.1%
8	Cameroon	42	1485	65.5%	0%
9	Mali	47	1474	64.2%	0%
10	South Africa	48	1469	39.0%	0%
11	Tunisia	61	1415	26.6%	0%
12	Burkina Faso	62	1408	26.5%	0%
13	Cabo Verde	68	1374	21.6%	0%

South Africa at the World Cup

4World Cups played

Round of 32best finish · 2026

2026last World Cup

They have played at 4 World Cups, the first in 1998 and the most recent in 2026. Their best finish is the round of 32, in 2026.

At the 2026 World Cup they reached the round of 32, with 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 4 matches (goals 2–4). Before the tournament, the 2026 simulator had them reaching the round of 32 in 35.4% of 50,000 simulated tournaments. How the simulator's numbers compared with the whole tournament.

South Africa's matches at the 2026 World Cup. The last column is the 2026 simulator's chance, before the tournament, of the result that happened — in a knock-out match, of the side that went through doing so.
Date	Round	Opponent	Score	Chance beforehand
11 June	Group stage	Mexico	0–2	71%
18 June	Group stage	Czechia	1–1	24%
25 June	Group stage	Korea Republic	1–0	18%
28 June	Round of 32	Canada	0–1	69%

Play it out: take South Africa through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

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