Slovenia and the 2030 World Cup
Ranked 52nd in the world, 26th in UEFA. 17.8% to qualify in our simulations.
Chances at the 2030 World Cup
Slovenia qualify in 17.8% of simulated campaigns: outsiders, but with a route that opens up often enough to be worth playing for. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (82.2% of cycles).
When they are at the finals, Slovenia get out of their group 42.1% of the time; a quarter-final comes up in 0.4% of all cycles.
A 64-team World Cup would change the picture: with the extra places the simulator assumes for that format, Slovenia qualify in 25.7% of campaigns instead of 17.8%.
- Qualify17.8%
- Round of 327.5%
- Round of 161.8%
- Quarter-finals0.4%
- Semi-finals<0.1%
- Final<0.1%
- Champions0%
The route to the finals
Europe's qualifying is played in twelve groups: each group winner qualifies, and the eight best runners-up play off for the last two places. Slovenia come in at the group stage.
There are 14 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify.
UEFA qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.
How strong are they?
Slovenia have 1452.48 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 52nd in the world and 26th of the 55 nations in Europe. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.
Their attack score is 55 and their defence score 79, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. The scores describe a side built on defence: fewer goals scored than its rating would suggest, and fewer conceded.
| Opponent | Fixture | Expected goals | Win | Draw | Lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Republic of Ireland | At home to the next side in the UEFA ranking | 1.51 – 1.19 | 43% | 28% | 29% |
 Spain | At home to UEFA's highest-ranked side | 0.29 – 2.39 | 3% | 14% | 83% |
 Argentina | Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground | 0.29 – 2.39 | 3% | 14% | 83% |
Around them in UEFA
| In UEFA | Nation | FIFA rank | Points | Qualifies | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 |  Serbia |
44 | 1482 | 18.7% | 0% |
| 24 |  Slovakia |
45 | 1477 | 21.6% | <0.1% |
| 25 |  Czechia |
51 | 1457 | 16.9% | <0.1% |
| 26 |  Slovenia |
52 | 1452 | 17.8% | 0% |
| 27 | Republic of Ireland |
56 | 1439 | 14.7% | <0.1% |
| 28 |  Bosnia and Herzegovina |
57 | 1429 | 13.1% | 0% |
| 29 |  Romania |
58 | 1429 | 11.6% | 0% |
Slovenia at the World Cup
They have played at 2 World Cups, the first in 2002 and the most recent in 2010. They have yet to get past the group stage. They have missed the last 4 World Cups.
Play it out: take Slovenia through Europe's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.
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