Will Liberia make the 2030 World Cup? 0.3% to qualify, <0.1% to win

Liberia and the 2030 World Cup

Ranked 146th in the world, 43rd in CAF. 0.3% to qualify in our simulations.

Updated 22 October 2026

146thFIFA ranking, of 211

43rdof 54 in CAF

1065rating points

34 / 27attack / defence, out of 100

0.3%qualify (simulated)

Chances at the 2030 World Cup

Liberia reach the World Cup in 0.3% of simulated campaigns — it happens, but it takes a run of results the model almost never produces. The single most likely outcome is not qualifying (99.7% of cycles).

Qualify0.3%

Round of 320%

Round of 160%

Quarter-finals0%

Semi-finals0%

Final0%

Champions0%

Share of 20,000 simulated cycles, from first qualifier to final, in which Liberia got at least this far. How the simulation works · All 211 nations

The route to the finals

Africa's qualifying is played in eight groups: only the group winners qualify, and the four best runners-up play off for a place in the inter-confederation play-off. Liberia come in at the group stage.

There are 8 places for the 53 nations that have to qualify, plus one route through the inter-confederation play-off, where five teams from five confederations contest two more places on neutral ground.

CAF qualifying in full: format, what is official and every nation's odds.

How strong are they?

Liberia have 1064.58 points in the FIFA ranking published on 7 October 2026, which places them 146th in the world and 43rd of the 54 nations in Africa. The simulator uses that points total directly as the team's rating.

Their attack score is 34 and their defence score 27, on a scale of 1 to 100 built from the last 30 internationals. Attack and defence are closely matched, so the team's results follow its overall rating without leaning towards high- or low-scoring games.

What the match engine expects from Liberia in three fixtures, over ninety minutes.
Opponent	Fixture	Expected goals	Win	Draw	Lose
Ethiopia	At home to the next side in the CAF ranking	1.47 – 1.23	41%	28%	30%
Morocco	At home to CAF's highest-ranked side	0.25 – 2.70	2%	11%	87%
Spain	Against the top-ranked side from another confederation, on neutral ground	0.23 – 2.81	2%	10%	89%

Around them in CAF

Liberia and the nations ranked around them in CAF.
In CAF	Nation	FIFA rank	Points	Qualifies	Champion
40	Burundi	140	1077	0.8%	0%
41	Botswana	141	1074	0.6%	0%
42	Central African Republic	145	1065	0.3%	0%
43	Liberia	146	1065	0.3%	0%
44	Ethiopia	147	1064	0.4%	0%
45	Lesotho	150	1053	0.2%	0%
46	Eswatini	164	979	<0.1%	0%

Liberia at the World Cup

They have never played at a World Cup finals.

Play it out: take Liberia through Africa's qualifying, or change their rating in the team editor and see what it takes.

Open the simulator